Vikings analysis
What Happens When Vikings QBs Go Past the First Read
Part of an ongoing analysis of the Vikings offense (project hub).
Data through week 9 of 2026.
Bottom line.
- When Kyler Murray or J.J. McCarthy throws to his first read, he plays at a normal level.
- When the play has to go past the first read, it collapses, and against the blitz it collapses worst.
- Cousins, Darnold and Wentz handled the same situations fine.
The problem shows up when a QB who’s still learning the offense has to read past his first option.
Kurt Warner’s film breakdown of the Detroit game made two claims. The first was that the offense leans on “pure progression” reads, which make the QB late. The second was that there’s no “pressure plan,” meaning no quick answer when the defense sends more rushers than the Vikings can block.
Film shows you plays. I wanted to know how often it happens, so I checked both claims against every NFL dropback since 2022.
1. Murray’s drop is past the first read
Kyler Murray, shotgun dropbacks: Arizona vs Minnesota
Opponent- and situation-adjusted EPA per dropback, by how the play ended
Later-read and checkdown gap vs Arizona: −0.36 (95% CI −0.79 to +0.07). Directional: the interval includes zero.
Data table
| Row | Arizona 2022–25 | Minnesota 2026 |
|---|---|---|
| First read | +0.24 | +0.27 |
| Later read | −0.11 | −0.67 |
| Checkdown | +0.02 | −0.18 |
| No throw (sack/scramble) | −0.82 | −1.39 |
The first-read number didn’t move. The drop is past it, and in plays that end with no throw at all. Murray also reaches the first read less often here. Only 36% of his dropbacks end in a first-read throw, 2nd percentile of 165 QB-seasons since 2023.
2. The blitz started costing the Vikings more in 2025
What the blitz costs each offense
Adj. EPA per dropback against 5+ rushers minus against 3–4 · below 0 = the blitz hurts · * through week 9
Percentile labels rank the Vikings among all 32 teams that season (100 = blitz hurts least). A few extreme team-seasons are clipped to the axis.
Data table (Vikings and league median)
| Season | Vikings | League median | Vikings pct |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2022 | −0.14 | −0.02 | 26 |
| 2023 | +0.03 | −0.03 | 74 |
| 2024 | +0.01 | −0.00 | 52 |
| 2025 | −0.25 | +0.01 | 7 |
| 2026* | −0.29 | −0.05 | 10 |
From 2022 to 2024, the blitz cost the Vikings about what it costs everyone. Starting in 2025, they’re near the bottom of the league. Pooled over 2022–26, the Vikings’ blitz penalty is 0.09 larger than the league’s (difference −0.09, 95% CI −0.23 to +0.05). That’s real in 2025 and still noisy for 2026’s half season.
The Vikings’ sack rate rises against the blitz by the same amount as everyone else’s, so the extra cost comes from somewhere besides sacks.
3. The cost sits past the first read
Vikings minus league, adj. EPA per dropback, 2022–26
By how the throw was read · point estimate with 95% interval (games resampled)
Data table
| Row | Estimate | 95% CI |
|---|---|---|
| Against the blitz (5+ rushers): First read | +0.02 | −0.17 to +0.19 |
| Against the blitz (5+ rushers): Later read / checkdown | −0.34 | −0.59 to −0.07 |
| No blitz (3–4 rushers): First read | +0.06 | −0.05 to +0.16 |
| No blitz (3–4 rushers): Later read / checkdown | −0.05 | −0.17 to +0.05 |
When the first read is there, the blitz doesn’t matter. When the QB has to work through the progression with extra rushers coming, the Vikings lose a third of a point per dropback relative to the league. That gap only shows up against the blitz.
4. Two QBs carry the blitz penalty
Blitz penalty by Vikings QB-season
Adj. EPA per dropback, 5+ rushers minus 3–4 · QB-seasons with 30+ blitzed dropbacks
Murray's blitz penalty in Arizona (2022–25) was +0.01.
Data table
| Row | Value |
|---|---|
| Cousins 2022 (141 blitzed dropbacks) | −0.14 |
| Dobbs 2023 (45 blitzed dropbacks) | −0.07 |
| Cousins 2023 (116 blitzed dropbacks) | +0.01 |
| Mullens 2023 (46 blitzed dropbacks) | +0.06 |
| Darnold 2024 (134 blitzed dropbacks) | +0.02 |
| Wentz 2025 (48 blitzed dropbacks) | +0.14 |
| McCarthy 2025 (77 blitzed dropbacks) | −0.45 |
| Wentz 2026* (30 blitzed dropbacks) | −0.02 |
| Murray 2026* (56 blitzed dropbacks) | −0.45 |
I expected this to be a Minnesota problem that every QB would show. It isn’t. Cousins, Darnold and Wentz were close to normal. McCarthy and Murray are the two outliers, and they’re the two QBs who were new to the offense and struggling with its progressions.
So what
- Simplifying alone won’t fix it. First-read throws already work. The cost is in the plays that don’t resolve at the first read. A QB new to the system needs built-in quick answers against extra rushers (hot routes, sight adjustments), or a quicker way to get off a covered first read.
- This explains why the offense has looked broken with some QBs and fine with others. The same plays cost little with a veteran who processes quickly and a lot with a young or new QB.
- What to watch: Kirk Cousins is back. If this reading is right, the Vikings’ blitz penalty should return to league-typical with him under center. If it doesn’t, the problem is bigger than QB fit.
What this doesn’t tell us
- Blitz counts come from FTN’s charters. “More rushers than blockers” isn’t charted, so 5+ rushers is a proxy.
- Per-QB samples are small: 56 blitzed dropbacks for Murray, 77 for McCarthy.
- Play-by-play can’t separate a missed hot route from a QB who didn’t see it. This shows where the cost is. It can’t say whose assignment failed.
Method: every NFL dropback 2022–26, with opponent and game-situation effects removed. Intervals resample whole games. Full analysis: Q25, Q19. Data: nflverse and FTN charting (CC-BY-SA 4.0).